MACRO AND MARKETS

In April 2022, Deutsche Bank Research made headlines by reporting that central banks’ battle to rein back inflation at the expense of global growth would precipitate recession in 2023. As 2022 draws to a close, the team reconfirm the economic storm clouds while highlighting their silver linings. flow’s Clarissa Dann reports

In the first Asia Corporate Newsletter of 2023, Deutsche Bank Research Strategist Mallika Sachdeva reflects on key economic pivots underway in Asia – China’s scrapping of its zero-Covid policy and the Bank of Japan’s initial steps to exiting ultra-easy monetary policy. She also shares insights on the impact of all of this on Deutsche Bank’s currency and commodities views and what this means for corporates’ FX and raw materials hedging strategies

As economies implement their decarbonisation targets, this changes supply and demand for not only metals and minerals, but also the energy needed to smelt the ores. Drawing on Deutsche Bank Research analysis, flow’s Clarissa Dann takes a closer look at China’s aluminium output, and the prospect of another oil glut

Given the inexorable upward trajectory of inflation, lower than hoped vaccination adoption rates and central bank hawkishness, what does this mean for the post-Covid recovery and future growth? flow presents the key findings of recent Deutsche Bank Research analysis that point to stormy waters ahead

Germany’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) and its leader Olaf Scholz was the winner of last month’s federal election. Yet he is not yet confirmed as successor to outgoing Chancellor Angel Merkel, while the new government could comprise a three-party coalition with major ideological differences, reports flow’s Graham Buck

Production shortfalls, political wrangling, safety concerns and vaccine hesitancy have created barriers on the road to normalcy, but the overall roll-out of injections is nonetheless advancing steadily, report flow’s Graham Buck and Clarissa Dann

The just-published 14^th Five-Year Plan is less concerned with growth targets than going it alone and making China self-reliant on goods such as computer chips, report flow’s Graham Buck and Janet Du Chenne

As China recovers from 2020 and enters the Year of the Ox, what does 2021 have in store for EU corporates in the country? Upcoming agreements and regulations look set to forge a path for greater investment opportunities

Although the 2020 US Election results indicate a Biden/Harris victory, the path to the White House is less than straightforward. flow´s Clarissa Dann takes a look at the next steps, and how the results have impacted the economy, markets and central bank

flow talks to KfW’s Ingrid Hengster, who provides insights into the development bank’s partnership with the Germany government and commercial banking sector to support German businesses

With fears of a pandemic second wave and evidence that the first wave is far from over in much of the world, prospects for recovery must adjust to the reality check report flow’s Clarissa Dann and Graham Buck

As India grapples with Covid-19, how ready will the country be to achieve its potential once the pandemic is over? Clarissa Dann reviews its post-independence growth and measures taken to improve the ease of doing business

Ethereum, the second largest cryptocurrency in terms of market cap has shifted to a “proof-of-stake” consensus mechanism, with key implications for energy use, network security – and the crypto landscape. Drawing on Deutsche Bank Research, flow’s Clarissa Dann takes a closer look

Over the past 44 years, China has emerged as a global economic superpower. flow’s Clarissa Dann explores its growth trajectory, and reflects on how Deutsche Bank’s own history in the region has come of age in corporate banking

The recent surge in energy prices raises big questions: will Europe be able to secure its energy supply on the back of reduced investments in fossil fuels and ongoing geopolitical conflicts? And how can corporates best prepare for a prolonged period of elevated energy prices? flow’s Desirée Buchholz reports

To achieve its economic potential, should Europe move away from its ‘taking part is everything’ stance and compete to win? Deutsche Bank’s Stefan Hoops considers who holds the chips

The persistence of the pandemic has delayed what promises to be a strong rebound in growth, while Chancellor Merkel’s departure casts uncertainty over the election in September and the country’s future role in the EU, reports flow's Graham Buck

flow reports on responses to the long-awaited EU-UK trade deal, concluded just days before the transition period expired on 31 December 2020

Having warded off the pandemic’s full impact, the world’s second-largest economy can focus on achieving technological self-sufficiency and developing its central bank digital currency, reports flow’s Graham Buck

As lockdown continues into Q2, unemployment escalates in all regions. What does this mean for economic recovery? Clarissa Dann reports on the balance between profit and GDP tomorrow versus survival today

The Covid-19 crisis is refocusing the way investors view environmental, social and governance measures, reshaping their purely altruistic intentions towards performance based metrics. Corporates’ priorities have also changed since the pandemic began. 

One of the constants at Virtual Sibos 2020 was the day starting with Dr Rangan Chatterjee’s community sessions on wellbeing. Having tuned in at 7.30am UK time each morning, the flow team now report on feeling “better”

With the prospect of recession nearing in North America and Europe, what does this mean for Asia’s recovery? Drawing on Deutsche Bank Research insights, flow takes a closer look at how the turbulent global economic climate is slowing growth and how corporates should respond

At the ITFA Annual Conference in Bristol, Deutsche Bank’s Sanjay Raja shares his outlook for GDP growth, perspective on the tightening labour market, and concerns about inflation, after a strong start to 2021 that changed course as the year went on. flow’s Clarissa Dann provides a summary of his essential messages

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell plans to start tapering off its asset purchase policy as the US economy recovers. But to what extent is the Delta variant of Covid-19 undermining this strategy? flow’s Graham Buck reports

Aladdin Rillo, former Deputy Secretary-General of the ASEAN Economic Community, reflects on his tenure and provides an update on the bloc’s Blueprint 2025 objectives

Indonesia’s Omnibus Law seeks to boost foreign investment, jobs, and trade. flow examines its background and the opportunities this could bring as the country recovers from Covid-19 economic shock

While anti-Covid vaccine rollouts have helped some regions lift coronavirus restrictions, limited access to labour could also limit economic recovery. flow’s Graham Buck and Clarissa Dann review sectors at risk and what this means for employers and governments

Despite some late nips and tucks to ensure its safe passage, President Biden’s US$1.9trn American Rescue Bill is an ambitious package whose remit goes beyond reviving the US economy post-Covid-19. flow’s Graham Buck and Clarissa Dann examine what this means for US GDP growth

How much “support” should central banks give Covid-19 stricken economies? With the focus on fiscal responses, what tools remain in the monetary policy armoury? flow´s Clarissa Dann reviews Deutsche Bank Research insights

Covid-19 has changed the way investors view ESG, focusing more on performance than altruistic merit. flow’s Janet Du Chenne analyses Deutsche Bank research on what investors look for and the trends that are shaping the tools for predicting return

As governments around the world increase their lockdown relaxations, and epi-curves no longer have a relentless upward trajectory, how soon will economic activity pick up? Hotels, restaurants small businesses and luxury shops

With many economic forecasts assuming a Covid-19 vaccine is available by mid-2021 to assist recovery, can normal testing processes be accelerated? And who picks up the bill for liability claims? flow's Clarissa Dann and Graham Buck review recent developments

The presumption that Bitcoin and its peers offer a hedge against inflation has been debunked by recent sharp falls. The plunge extended to stablecoins, which are supposedly far less volatile. flow summarises Deutsche Bank Research analysis on crypto perception and reality

As inflation moves upwards, central banks continue to assert that the increase is transitory. Yet a return to “uncomfortable levels” is a very real prospect as the US economy undergoes its biggest shift of direction in four decades and others follow its lead, reports flow’s Graham Buck

As an extraordinary year draws to a close, flow take a look at 2020’s economic ups, downs, reverses from and accelerations towards any form of “normality” with thanks to our colleagues in Deutsche Bank Research

The changeover at the US economic helm ushers in a stimulus-based approach to economic revival. But leadership handovers in Germany and Japan are not likely to replicate that policy shift. What does this mean for the new world order? flow’s Graham Buck and Clarissa Dann investigate

Once post-Covid economic growth accelerates, will inflation spiral out of control? flow’s Graham Buck examines current measures and past performances for indicators

Prompt responses to the pandemic provided a role model for other countries while Asia’s exporters are meeting demand from still-restricted economies elsewhere. The region’s ability to trade as a multilateral bloc is the other accelerator of the recovery, report flow’s Janet du Chenne and Graham Buck

Good news on vaccines suggests some form of normality could return sooner rather than later. However, scalability, distribution priorities, and trust in governments will all determine the speed. flow’s Clarissa Dann shares insights from Deutsche Bank Research

As economies move along their pandemic exit trajectories, and the cost of economic stimulus raises the spectre of galloping inflation, flow's Clarissa Dann reviews Deutsche Bank Research analysis on whether this scenario is likely given the current central bank grip on markets

With the US Election result too close to call after a record turn-out by the American people, all eyes are on how its electoral system arrives at choosing a leader and the components of its Congress. flow´s Clarissa Dann explores the economic impact of four potential outcomes

With light at the end of the Covid-19 tunnel nearer for some regions than others, flow’s Clarissa Dann examines the pandemic’s economic impact and responses as households and firms plan for the eventual recovery

After a prolonged bout of austerity, Greece was on track for an economic comeback before Covid-19. flow’s Graham Buck asks whether the pandemic has derailed the recovery, or merely delayed it

With a potential five-year trek back to near-normal economic health, the Deutsche Bank Research new World Outlook report has revised upwards projections of three months ago – but much is contingent on good news in 2021 about a vaccine. flow ’s Graham Buck and Clarissa Dann report

Caught in the slipstream, or powering ahead? Dr Rebecca Harding examines ASEAN’s trade momentum in the context of wider geopolitical disruption

While the Covid-19 pandemic extends its grip, analysts are already assessing the impact and cost of what could be around US$5trn in fiscal support, and economies taking lessons from the global financial crisis

The global Covid-19 crisis response during transition from lockdown to gradual reopening is at a critical juncture. Clarissa Dann summarises recent Deutsche Bank research and analysis

Balance sheets and bottom lines are vital tools, but do they show a company’s biggest risks? Elizabeth Pfeuti reports on how Covid-19 has forced the C-suite to pay more attention to environmental, social and governance themes, so their businesses can survive

Covid-19 has inflicted the greatest change upon the global population since World War II and highlighted the importance of wellbeing. Michael Morley tells flow how an informed approach to employee wellness could play a meaningful role in a sustainable recovery

After a 76-day lockdown, Wuhan in China’s Hubei Province is back in business. flow’s Clarissa Dann examines the pandemic’s impact on Asia and how economies balance containment, their economies and civil liberties

As the European Union (EU) absorbs its €2.364trn pandemic support and rebuilds, how can the market forces/state intervention balance be managed to avert market failure? flow ’s Clarissa Dann and Graham Buck

As climate change voices shout louder than ever, flow reports on how engagement in society could turn the tide with examples of recent transactions, reflects on further Sibos 2020 ESG discussions, and highlights Deutsche Bank Research findings on blockchain as a sustainability enabler

The new global language for financial communications is a work in progress. In this article for The Asian Banker, Nancy So assesses how the region’s banks measure up

Consumer spending drives almost 70% of US GDP and as each economy plans its lockdown exit, households are saving more, and prioritising home essentials over luxuries. flow´s Clarissa Dann reviews the changing patterns of consumer behaviour where age groups, regions, and containment strategies determine which industries will get the shrinking wallet allocations

With the coronavirus now pronounced a pandemic by the World Health Organisation and lockdown imposed on more regions and cities, what will be the impact on the global economy? flow reviews extracts from Deutsche Bank research